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Gold Down, Yen Up, US Dollar Sideways Ahead of Fed – Caution Advised

Gold Down, Yen Up, US Dollar Sideways Ahead of Fed – Caution Advised

ASIA/EUROPE F OREX NEWS WRAP The day we’ve been waiting for has finally arrived. Ever since May 22, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed could wind down QE3 over the course of the “next few meetings,” US economic data has been under the microscope as market participants try to figure out when the Fed’s ‘taper’ might ultimately come. At the time Chairman Bernanke suggested that QE3 could be wound down, the Citi Economic Surprise Index suggested that recent US data had been skewed lower, with the gauge showing -19.4.

Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades QE Taper Risk

Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades QE Taper Risk

Crude oil and gold prices are likely to rise if the Federal Reserve pours cold water on expectations of a near-term reduction in the size of QE asset purchases. Talking Points Fed Policy Announcement in Focus as Traders Await “Taper” Guidance Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades Stimulus Reduction Risk The Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement is in focus. Traders are looking to the outing as a defining moment when the FOMC unveils critical guidance on the timing of a reduction in QE3 asset purchases and the strategy to be used to execute it

AUD/USD analysis for June 19, 2013

AUD/USD analysis for June 19, 2013

AUD/USD Elliott Wave For the last few days the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, impulsive wave 3 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured red) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe strong descending movement from 0.9571 towards the 0.9441 level. Therefore, during the late New York session this major currency did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced back to 0.9515 level (NY sessions high). At the moment the AUD/USD pair is at the end of the corrective wave 4 (coloured blue) and we expect to see one more push lower when developing of the wave 5 (coloured blue) starts.

USD/CAD analysis for June 19, 2013

USD/CAD analysis for June 19, 2013

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Since our last analysis the USD/CAD has continued trading higher just like we expected, impulsive wave 3 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave [1] (coloured red) has finished developing. During the Tuesdays Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.0177 towards the 1.0213 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity has continued trading in a bullish mood and the price has reached a new daily high at 1.0216 level.

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EUR/USD hovering below 1.34

EUR/USD hovering below 1.34

© Dukascopy Bank SA “Markets will likely continue to view any move to withdraw policy as the first step of many and, as a result, volatility is likely to remain elevated as the market balances incoming data with Fed communications about its policy stance.”  – Barclays (based on Reuters) Pair’s Outlook After being supported by the weekly PP for some time pair is currently hovering slightly below 1.34 and seems to be aiming at 1.345 area.

GBP/USD supported by the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD supported by the 200-day SMA

© Dukascopy Bank SA “We wouldn’t be surprised if he has a few choice words to say about the City, remuneration and risk taking.

USD/JPY stooped by the weekly PP

USD/JPY stooped by the weekly PP

© Dukascopy Bank SA  ”Speculations about the Fed’s decision are still keeping investors on the sidelines, so volume may be low. But Wall Street’s optimistic stance on the Fed outcome is serving as a tailwind to Japanese stocks.”  – Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters) Pair’s Outlook After a slow but confident appreciation initiated by the monthly S2/Fibo 38.2% (November, 2012, to May, 2013, move) pair has met some resistance provided by the weekly PP at 95.8

USD/CHF at 0.92

USD/CHF at 0.92

© Dukascopy Bank SA “The Swiss franc has strengthened as risk aversion has flared up. While we remain bearish for the franc over the medium term, the near term outlook will be driven by risk gyrations.

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EUR/USD hovering below 1.34

EUR/USD hovering below 1.34

© Dukascopy Bank SA “Markets will likely continue to view any move to withdraw policy as the first step of many and, as a result, volatility is likely to remain elevated as the market balances incoming data with Fed communications about its policy stance.”  – Barclays (based on Reuters) Pair’s Outlook After being supported by the weekly PP for some time pair is currently hovering slightly below 1.34 and seems to be aiming at 1.345 area.

GBP/USD supported by the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD supported by the 200-day SMA

© Dukascopy Bank SA “We wouldn’t be surprised if he has a few choice words to say about the City, remuneration and risk taking.

USD/JPY stooped by the weekly PP

USD/JPY stooped by the weekly PP

© Dukascopy Bank SA  ”Speculations about the Fed’s decision are still keeping investors on the sidelines, so volume may be low. But Wall Street’s optimistic stance on the Fed outcome is serving as a tailwind to Japanese stocks.”  – Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters) Pair’s Outlook After a slow but confident appreciation initiated by the monthly S2/Fibo 38.2% (November, 2012, to May, 2013, move) pair has met some resistance provided by the weekly PP at 95.8

USD/CHF at 0.92

USD/CHF at 0.92

© Dukascopy Bank SA “The Swiss franc has strengthened as risk aversion has flared up. While we remain bearish for the franc over the medium term, the near term outlook will be driven by risk gyrations.

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